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☆ China is the only major economy dealing with deflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-01 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

China has been grappling with negative consumer prices for several months. No other major world economy faces deflation. China is the only major economy with negative consumer prices, dropping 0.8% year-over-year in January. China is the only major economy dealing with deflation. And China's ongoing real estate market slump has depressed the prices for household items and residences.

Persons: — Organizations: Service Locations: China, Beijing

☆ China's deflation problem keeps getting worse
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

In the latest sign of the country's worsening deflation problem, fresh data showed consumer prices in China tumbled in January at the sharpest rate in 14 years. AdvertisementOn an annualized month-over-month basis, consumer prices fell 4.3%, with particular weakness in food prices. Measured year-over-year for January:Pork prices fell 17.3%Vegetable prices fell 12.7%Fruit prices fell 9.1%The producer price index, too, dropped 2.5%, while service prices climbed at 0.5% on the year, half the rate seen in December. The more consumer prices fall, the more difficult it will be for Beijing to reverse. Foreign investors have already fled Chinese markets in droves over the last year, and ongoing deflation could spell trouble for earnings of Chinese companies.

Persons: —, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, National Bureau, Statistics, Bloomberg, Institute of International Finance Locations: China, China's, Beijing

☆ China's economy is at risk of a brutal 'debt-deflation spiral'
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

China's economy has crawled out of the pandemic far below the pace of what most analysts expected, and if policymakers don't step in with sufficient support in 2024, a "debt-deflation spiral" could ensue. Deflation and falling stocksThe researchers said China's leadership has failed to address the lopsided supply and demand dynamics in particular. Meanwhile, deflation has crushed corporate earnings and stock prices in China, as well as wage growth and tax revenues. Nominal GDP grew at 4.6% in 2023, 0.6 points below real growth. "The economy could fall into a debt-deflation spiral without adequate policy support."

Persons: Gene Ma, Phoebe Feng, Ma, Feng, Banks Organizations: Wall Street, Institute of International Finance, CSI, People's Bank of Locations: China, Beijing, People's Bank of China

The South American country's markets are closed on Monday for a local holiday, so will only fully trade on Tuesday. Overseas-listed sovereign bonds and some equities will trade, mainly in Europe and the United States. In his first speech Milei pledged speedy reforms to fix an economy mired in crisis. If Milei can convince the market that the chainsaw (fiscal discipline) is the heart and soul of his presidency then bonds rally," he said. But he still faces a divided Congress where his Liberty Advances bloc only has a small share of seats.

Persons: Javier Milei's, Sergio Massa, Juan Manuel Pazos, Milei, Mauricio Macri, Patricia Bullrich, Martin Castellano, Walter Stoeppelwerth, Gletir, Gustavo Ber, Jorgelina, Walter Bianchi, Jorge Otaola, Christopher Cushing Organizations: Peronist, FX, Institute of International Finance, Liberty, Thomson Locations: BUENOS AIRES, Argentine, American, Europe, United States, Buenos Aires, Rosario

☆ U.S. voters care more about rising prices than jobs: IIF
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. voters care more about rising prices than jobs: IIFTim Adams of the Institute of International Finance is concerned congressional dysfunction in the U.S. will continue to handicap the ability to address ballooning debt in the long run.

Persons: Tim Adams Organizations: U.S, Institute of International Finance Locations: U.S

☆ Private sector is ready to finance climate change but is worried about green washing: IIF
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPrivate sector is ready to finance climate change but is worried about green washing: IIFTim Adams of the Institute of International Finance says there is "market failure" in climate financing, and believes public institutions need to play a bigger role in certifying the legitimacy of climate projects.

Persons: Tim Adams Organizations: Institute of International Finance

☆ Global debt stock hit a record $307 trillion in the first half of 2023, top trade body says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Hannah Ward-Glenton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The global debt-to-GDP ratio now sits at around 336%, which is up from 334% in the fourth quarter of 2022, the report said. The ratio had experienced seven consecutive quarters of decline, before resuming its upward trajectory in the first half of 2023. The stock of global debt rose $10 trillion in the first half of 2023, bringing it to a new record high of $307 trillion, according to a report by the Institute of International Finance released Tuesday. Worldwide spikes in inflation were the main factor causing the decline in debt ratio, helped by higher borrowing costs and tighter lending standards. Consumer debt meanwhile remains "largely manageable" in mature markets, the IIF said, with the household debt ratio dropping to its lowest level in two decades in the first half of 2023.

Persons: — Organizations: Institute of International Finance, Federal, Group Locations: U.S, Japan, France, China, India, Brazil

The financial services trade group said in a report that global debt in dollar terms had risen by $10 trillion in the first half of 2023 and by $100 trillion over the past decade. It said the latest increase has lifted the global debt-to-GDP ratio for a second straight quarter to 336%. Prior to 2023, the debt ratio had been declining for seven quarters. Slower growth, alongside a deceleration in price increases, were behind the debt ratio rise, the report said. "As higher rates and higher debt levels push government interest expenses higher, domestic debt strains are set to increase," the IIF said.

Persons: Florence Lo, Rodrigo Campos, Karin Strohecker, Alexander Smith Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Institute of International Finance, Reuters, Federal, Thomson Locations: United States, Japan, Britain, France, China, India, Brazil, Korea, Thailand, U.S

An investor looks at an electronic board showing stock information at a brokerage house in Shanghai, China July 6, 2018. A monthly report from the Institute of International Finance showed non-residents funneled $14.9 billion out of China stocks, the largest monthly outflow on records back to 2015, while Chinese debt saw $5.1 billion in outflows. The broad MSCI stock and currency emerging market indexes posted in August their largest monthly drops since February. Equities fell across all geographical regions while debt posted inflows in Asia, Latam and emerging Europe. Year-to-date numbers through August show a $13.1 billion outflow from China while emerging markets ex-China has seen $139.5 billion in non-resident portfolio inflows.

Persons: Aly, Jonathan Fortun, Fortun, Rodrigo Campos, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, China, EMs, Institute of International Finance, China's, Reuters Graphics Equity, Emerging, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, outflows, Emerging Asia, Latin, Africa, Middle East, Asia, Europe

☆ Jamie Dimon says it's a 'huge mistake' to think economy will boom with so many risks out there
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Hugh Son | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Monday that while the U.S. economy is doing well, it would be a "huge mistake" to believe that it will last for years. Healthy consumer balance sheets and rising wages are supporting the economy for now, but there are risks ahead, said Dimon, who was speaking at a financial conference in New York. "To say the consumer is strong today, meaning you are going to have a booming environment for years, is a huge mistake," he said. But the U.S. economy has proven resilient, leading more economists to expect that a recession might be avoided. "If and when you have a recession, which you're eventually going to have, you'll have a real normal credit cycle," Dimon said.

Persons: Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, Dimon, Topping Organizations: JPMorgan Chase &, Institute of International Finance, JPMorgan Locations: Washington , DC, U.S, New York, Ukraine

☆ Exodus of capital from China signals 'seismic' change in global flows as investors grow wary of autocratic regimes
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China's capital exodus is among the worst seen by emerging markets, said Robin Brooks, chief economist at IIF. That's as global investors have grown wary of autocratic regimes, he tweeted on Sunday. "The change in global capital flows is seismic. "But China has now seen consistent and large outflows for the past 18 months, as investors grow wary of autocracies." Global markets look at China in a new light," Brooks said in a separate X post.

Persons: Robin Brooks, Brooks, Ukraine that's, Adam Posen Organizations: IIF, Service, Institute of International Finance, hemorrhaging, CSI, Administration of Foreign Exchange, EPFR, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Foreign Affairs Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, outflows

And with China's post-COVID recovery running into the ground and suffering a deepening real estate bust, western investment curbs throw more sand in the wheels. A question now is whether a retreat of western money from emerging markets at least partly explains both their recent underperformance and that of western government bonds, in which emerging central banks and sovereign funds are heavily invested. The picture has not been much better in aggregate emerging bond indices, even if they have done marginally better than developed world counterparts, and worries over emerging high-yield and property linked bonds are rising. Have global investors high-tailed it from emerging markets already? If western money grows more wary and is increasingly warned off China and other selective emerging investments, will there be a mutual pullback of official emerging money from western bond markets?

Persons: Aly, Joe Biden, Morgan, Biden, crumb, Mike Dolan, Richard Chang Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, U.S ., Bank of, Institute for International Finance, Treasury, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, Ukraine, Washington, Russia, United States, Beijing, Moscow, Taiwan, Brazil, India, South Africa, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, South Korea

"China is not trying to supplant the IMF," said Matthew Mingey, a senior analyst with Rhodium Group. "When China has allowed these swap lines to be tapped, in many cases it's to unlock an IMF bailout or ensure an IMF programme stays on track." In turn, China is a major customer for Argentina's soy, corn and poultry exports. "China has every incentive to tightly manage Argentine drawings under the swap lines as the risks are very high." The swap line that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) signed in 2009 with Buenos Aires was the first agreed with a Latin American country.

Persons: Matthew Mingey, Buenos, Mark Sobel, Sobel, Sergio Massa, Martin Castellano, Alejandro Werner, Werner, Mingey, Jorgelina, Rosario, Karin Strohecker, Jorge Otaola, Joe Cash, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: International Monetary Fund, IMF, U.S . Treasury, Reuters, World Bank, TAG, People's Bank of China, Buenos Aires, Economy, Institute of International Finance, Relations, Georgetown Americas Institute, Western Hemisphere Department, Thomson Locations: China, Argentina, Beijing, Washington, Latin America, Buenos Aires, U.S, Buenos, American, United States, Zambia, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Ukraine

☆ We need to prepare for a negative shock from China, says IIF's Tim Adams on weak China economic data
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe need to prepare for a negative shock from China, says IIF's Tim Adams on weak China economic dataTim Adams, Institute of International Finance CEO, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk banking regulation, the sector-at-large, the Chinese economy and more.

Persons: Tim Adams Organizations: Institute of International Finance Locations: China

☆ The inflation shock is over so there's no need for any more Fed rate hikes, the Institute of International Finance's chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

"The US inflation shock is over", so the Fed need not hike interest rates any more, according to the chief economist of the Institute of International Finance. The IIF's measure of "inflation generalization" has fallen to the lowest level since February 2021, Robin Brooks said. US inflation has been steadily cooling from its mid-2022's highs, coming in at 4.0% in May on an annual basis. "The US inflation shock is over. While Brooks suggests the threat of inflation has faded, other market commentators have raised concerns inflation is sticky and can lead to stagflation.

Persons: Robin Brooks, —, Brooks, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Institute of International Finance, Service, CPI, Federal

☆ Investors channel billions into emerging markets, but China drops again-IIF
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The fifth consecutive month of positive foreign investor cash flows to emerging markets came despite outflows of $7.2 billion from Chinese debt and a small $100 million inflow to the country's equities, the IIF found. Investor appetite for China has been cooling against a backdrop of disappointing data, deteriorating Sino-U.S. relations and regulatory crack-downs from Beijing that unsettled markets. Overall, investors put $6.9 billion into emerging market equities and $3.5 billion into debt. The bulk of the incoming cash - a total of $16.4 billion - went to Asian emerging markets, with equities in India, Taiwan and Korea drawing large investments. Investors pulled a total of $5.8 billion from emerging markets in Africa and the Middle East.

Persons: Amanda Perobelli LONDON, Jonathan Fortun, Fortun, Libby George, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, Institute of International Finance, Reuters, U.S, Investors, Thomson Locations: Sao Paulo, Brazil, outflows, China, U.S, Beijing, Asian, India, Taiwan, Korea, Africa, Outflows, South Africa

☆ IMF chief says there's no significant slowdown in lending and the Fed may need to do more
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The International Monetary Fund has yet to see enough banks pulling back on lending that would cause the U.S. Federal Reserve to change course with its rate-hiking cycle. "We don't yet see a significant slowdown in lending. The Federal Reserve in a May banks report warned that lenders are worried about conditions ahead, as trouble in mid-sized financial institutions in the U.S. caused banks to tighten lending standards for households and businesses. A majority of major global central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, have tightened their monetary policy aggressively to tame soaring inflation. Meanwhile, the world's global debt has swelled to a near-record high of $305 trillion, according to the Institute of International Finance.

Persons: Georgieva, Kristalina Georgieva, Karen Tso, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, IIF Organizations: Monetary Fund, U.S . Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Institute of International Finance Locations: Dubrovnik, Croatia, U.S

NEW YORK/LONDON, June 1 (Reuters) - A bill backed by debt justice campaigners and civil society groups advocating on behalf of economically distressed countries could alter past and future sovereign debt restructurings covered by New York state law - and Wall Street is watching. Senate Bill S4747, the NY Taxpayer and International Debt Crises Protection Act, "relates to New York state's support of international debt relief initiatives for certain developing countries." The initiative has so far failed to accelerate debt relief talks, while private creditors are not even formally included in this initiative. It would "bring badly needed improvements to the framework for resolving unsustainable sovereign debt burdens," according to Nobel Prize-winning U.S. economist Joseph Stiglitz. If this bill passes, "I would recommend issuers not go through New York law, (but) through London or any other jurisdiction," said Rodrigo Olivares-Caminal, professor of banking and finance law at Queen Mary University of London.

Persons: Bill S4747, Alexander Flood, Patricia Fahy, Kathy Hochul, Joseph Stiglitz, Rishikesh Ram Bhandary, THE BILL, Rodrigo Olivares, Caminal, Rodrigo Campos, Jorgelina, Karin Strohecker, Aurora Ellis Organizations: NY Taxpayer, Senate, Institute of International Finance, Paris Club, China, WHO, Economic, Initiative, Boston, Global, Policy, THE, Queen Mary University of London, Thomson Locations: New York, United States, Ukraine, Sri Lanka, Zambia, Rishikesh, London, Paris, Brazil, Argentina, Rosario

☆ Global debt nears record highs as rate hikes trigger 'crisis of adaptation,' top trade body says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The G7 summit will be held in Hiroshima from 19-22 May. The finance industry body said the combination of such high debt levels and rising interest rates has driven up the cost of servicing that debt, triggering concerns about leverage in the financial system. Central banks around the world have been hiking interest rates for over a year in a bid to rein in sky-high inflation. The U.S. Federal Reserve earlier this month lifted its fed funds rate to a target range of 5%-5.25%, the highest since August 2007. "At close to $305 trillion, global debt is now $45 trillion higher than its pre-pandemic level and is expected to continue increasing rapidly: Despite concerns about a potential credit crunch following the recent turmoil in the banking sectors of the U.S. and Switzerland, government borrowing needs remain elevated," the IIF said.

"Global debt is now $45 trillion higher than its pre-pandemic level and is expected to continue increasing rapidly," said the IIF in its quarterly Global Debt Monitor. The report partly focused on the effects of last year's rapid rise in rates in some bank balance sheets. The IIF voiced its concern that tighter lending practices among smaller banks would hurt some businesses and households harder. "Shadow banks now account for more than 14% of financial markets, with the majority of growth stemming from a rapid expansion of U.S. investment funds and private debt markets." "With the interest rate differential between EMs and mature markets diminishing, EM local currency debt is less appealing for foreign investors," the IIF said.

"Global debt is now $45 trillion higher than its pre-pandemic level and is expected to continue increasing rapidly," said the IIF in its quarterly Global Debt Monitor. The report partly focused on the effects of last year's rapid rise in rates in some bank balance sheets. "Shadow banks now account for more than 14% of financial markets, with the majority of growth stemming from a rapid expansion of U.S. investment funds and private debt markets." But for others access to markets has been harder or non-existent on either tighter spreads as rates rose in developed markets or fast-rising borrowing costs. "With the interest rate differential between EMs and mature markets diminishing, EM local currency debt is less appealing for foreign investors," the IIF said.

ORLANDO, Florida, May 15 (Reuters) - China's yuan faces significant long-term obstacles to becoming a global reserve currency of any great import, but the biggest challenge in the near term is the fact that nobody wants to buy Chinese bonds. Reuters ImageReuters Image"It is very hard to create a reserve currency, without attractive reserve assets. Exante Data's figures show foreign investors bought a net $558 billion of Chinese bonds between 2010 and 2021. But in a pool of $12 trillion global reserves, of which nearly 80% is denominated in dollars and euros, these are very small numbers. Reuters ImageRESERVE STATUSAny currency that has designs on attaining international reserve status must meet several criteria and fulfill several roles.

The economy ministry forecast GDP growth of 2% in 2024, down from 2.6% when it last provided macroeconomic forecasts in the autumn. SHRINKING SURPLUSRussia's current account surplus is shrinking sharply, down around 73% in the first quarter of 2023. Economists from the Institute of International Finance said Russia had a large "excess" current account surplus in 2022, with a surplus above and beyond the normal seasonal path in 2021 and 2022. "This windfall has ended in 2023, with Russia's current account surplus below 'normal', likely one reason why the rouble has weakened year-to-date," it added. The economy ministry lowered its rouble rate forecast to 76.5 to the dollar in 2023, from 68.3 in the previous forecast, and to 76.8 from 70.9 in 2024.

☆ Banking turmoil was not a crisis but 'the downside risks are real,' IIF boss warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Tim Adams Anjali Sundaram | CNBCThe banking sector turmoil that led to the collapse of several lenders was not a systemic crisis and has now subsided, according to Tim Adams, CEO of the Institute of International Finance. Speaking to CNBC on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings in Washington D.C. on Tuesday, Adams said the March chaos was a "period of market turmoil or turbulence," but dismissed the notion that it was a "crisis." The IIF is a global trade body for the financial services industry, with around 400 members in more than 60 countries. Adams said the primary concern among members was the downside risk to growth, particularly in advanced economies. The IMF on Tuesday lowered its five-year global growth forecast to around 3%, marking the lowest medium-term forecast in an IMF World Economic Outlook report since 1990.

☆ IIF CEO: Banking turmoil was not a crisis and has subsided
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIIF CEO: Banking turmoil was not a crisis and has subsidedTim Adams, the CEO of the Institute of International Finance, speaks to CNBC's Joumanna Bercetche at the 2023 Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund.

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